DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/06 11:56
All Grain Higher at Midday
Corn is 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 7 to 8 cents higher, and wheat is
2 cents lower to 2 cents higher.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is higher with the Dow 350 points higher. The dollar
index is 54 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are
firmer with crude up $0.50. Livestock trade is firmer with cattle leading.
Precious metals are firmer with gold up $7.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with the forecast adding support
after the end of the week selling going into the weekend as we get closer to
pollination but trade has not held the overnight highs. The forecast has warmer
temps and spotty rain for most into mid-July. Ethanol margins are expected to
see pressure with gasoline demand still soft. USDA said Monday morning the
weekly Export Inspections report would not be released until later in the day
due to technical difficulties. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady
conditions and silking near to slightly above average. On the September
contract, support is the 20-day at 3.34 with resistance the $3.53 3/4 highs.
Soybean trade 7 to 9 cents higher at midday to open the week with support
from weather, and the cheaper dollar to boost demand. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50
higher and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. The real is up slightly against the
dollar, and at the midpoint of the recent range. Crush margins have seen little
change in recent days. Drier weather into mid-month will add support but we
remain a ways from the key podfill time frame. Weekly crop progress expected to
show emergence complete, and blooming just above normal with steady to slightly
lower conditions. The USDA announced 264,000 metric tons of beans sold to China
for old crop. The August soybean chart resistance is the $9.03 fresh high, with
support the upper Bollinger band at $8.94.
Wheat is 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher with winter wheat harvest moving
towards the back half of the run, while Russian harvest will continue to
expand. The ruble remains in the recent range vs. the dollar with U.S. export
competitiveness improved with the sharp break in the dollar. Kansas City is at
a 54-cent discount to Chicago on the August, while Minneapolis is back to a 22
cent premium. The September Kansas City chart support is the lower Bollinger
Band at $4.22, and resistance the 20-day at $4.45.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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